Likud Divides on Election Night Prospects

Likud members are split on whether they will win the election scheduled for Tuesday.

The party faces an election on October 27. This date allows the current government to complete its full term. A survey released days before the vote found that nearly one third of Israeli voters have not yet decided who to support.

Opinions inside the party vary widely. A Likud source said some members are confident in victory while others fear a strong turnout effort by opponents. The source cited internal polling run by Shlomo Filber as a key factor. "We have some who are very sure of themselves, and some who are less so," the source said. Regarding Filber's predictions, the source added, "Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It is one or the other."

Party officials worry about organizations directing large sums of money to get out the vote for rival candidates. These groups ran a wide ranging campaign throughout the election period. The activities included social media ads, street signs, field events, and rides for Arab voters. The groups also worked to bring Israelis living abroad home to vote. One source called it the nonprofits affair on steroids. The source argued these groups give Netanyahu opponents a broad support network that sits outside standard party financing rules. No documentation was provided for the funding amounts or the claim that the activity was illegal.

Likud also criticized the Central Elections Committee. The party claimed the committee focused on enforcing limits for campaign videos and public resource use. It gave too little attention to the work of these organizations.

For Election Day, Likud is preparing a large ground operation. The party aims to keep right wing votes from drifting to smaller slates. It faces restrictions on getting information from polling stations. Likud tried to convince Brig. Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter to leave the race. Winter leads the People of Israel party and was a former commander of the Givati Brigade. The effort involved talks with Rabbi Eli Sadan, who later issued a statement supporting Winter. Likud is also courting backers of other right wing lists. These include the joint ticket of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha. Rabbi Abergel's Ahi party has already withdrawn from the race following talks with Likud. Discussions included the possibility of legislation allowing the party to name a deputy minister.